Don't strike, go to the polls! - 1

It is the first time that Labour has come so close to losing London. As you know, on May 1 Londoners are going to choose their new mayor. And it is possible that on the next day they will wake up with old Ken ousted by popular vote and other man seating in his chair. Who will be that man? Last poll, conducted on weekend, put Conservative Boris Johnson one per cent behind incumbent mayor and Labour candidate. It means that result is still unclear and depends on you coming out and going to booth to make your choice.
However merely the prospect of losing London spells for Labour a serious trouble. For many years the centre-left party had massive support of London liberal or left-leaning voters. New Labour efforts to curry favour with the City and businesspeople were successful: the party got support and donations from super-rich people and transformed London into the global hub of financial world.
But something happened. Brown's government is faltering. Wealthy businesspeople got cross with tax system and are moving out. Brown himself is very unpopular. Actually his rating is now on a par with that of Neville Chamberlain in 1940 just after the beginning of WW2. Over the last few days the PM was facing a fierce critique of his policy and several senior figures associated with Labour party question his judgement.
Taking into account recent developments losing London will just underscore an already shaped tendency in Labour's fortunes. These fortunes are going down. And it will be emphasised by the fact that the other candidate, Boris Johnson, does not seem very strong politician. For too long he was trying to be funny that many people do not view him as serious politician. He remains untested because he has not had senior posts. Much is known about his personality but very little about his administrative qualities. nobody can say whether he has enough experience to run such city as London that is more similar to small European country (both in terms of population and economic output).
On the other side, Ken Livingstone do not fare better either. He did not deliver on issues of crime, transport, public services. He is associated with troubled Labour party. Many Londoners are just tired of him.
What we have now is unpredictable result. But we will know the answer in few days. This election will show how deep Labour has fallen already and how much energy Tories have got from this fall so far.

Returning to work

Since I haven't been posting here for a while, tonight I'm going to return back. This is a hot period in UK politics. Time has come to state your opinion and go to the polling stations on May 1. We should make our voices be heard in corridors of Whitehall.
In run-up to May 1 I want to present a new series of political articles under common title "Don't strike, go to the polls!". It will comprise four articles starting from today till the election day. You can read them above this post.

The case against uncontrolled migration - 1

Recently the House of Lords Committee produced a report on the benefits of uncontrolled migration that blossomed under Labour rule. In fact, it couldn't find substantial benefits to the economy of the UK and assessed the overall impact of net migration as close to zero in long-term perspective. Such conclusions make Government's argument in favour of migration weaker than ever for it was primary Labour assertion that migration ostensibly brings "enormous" benefit to country's economy. When this way of reasoning is shown to be entirely false and based on rigged in favour of Government statistics, voices of critics of Labour strategy - or lack of any - gain strength.
Why? Because migration puts a considerable strain on our welfare state, on housing market, on NHS, on other public services. Words, coming from ministers who lament "shortfall" in workforce in the UK and praise hard-working migrants taking over jobs where "nobody wants to work", are utterly preposterous. We have here in this country one and a half unemployed "on training schemes" and about three million on incapacity benefit - and still Government needs foreign workers to fill gaps on job market? Why Labour don't want to make easier for unemployed people to find the job rather than inviting migrants and doping unemployed with welfare benefits? Taking into account a looming financial crisis, the situation now begs the question of why Labour did not do their utmost to empower unemployed people with jobs and not risk our stretched public services (leaving aside community cohesion). Labour showed a great incompetence and mismanagement dealing with economy as if they thought it was going to boom forever. Moreover, as government was (and is) promoting multiculturalism and such hospitality to new "British" workers as even translating in their native languages various documents (seemingly forgetting that only official language here is English language), it makes one wonder if it was a special kind of malignant strategy aimed at making this country fully cosmopolitan (i.e., uprooting national identity) and boosting the economy (and number of Labour voters) with arriving foreign people.
Where did this strategy lead us after ten years of Labour in power, we can see now.
Our economy has serious problems, our public services are over-stretched and the worst of all - the sense of community is badly damaged. This rather socio-cultural than economical phenomenon makes argument against migration so sound. And I will explore it in details over the next couple of days.

Glamour instead of policy

Last week was marked by the state visit of Nicholas Sarkozy and his wife to the UK. This visit was widely reported by national newspapers and sparked much buzz about a new era in Anglo-French relations.
Mr. Sarkozy delivered a speech about virtues of British people and referred to our Parliament as historical ancestor to other democratic institutes. He heaped praise on British resolve during WW2 and wanted to look like an Anglophile. In fact, he is one. Gordon Brown didn't lag behind and promised a new "Entente formidable" with French. Carla Bruni tried to look like First Lady should look like and to put her rather frivolous past behind. Many journalists and members of public were fascinated by her glamour and now she enjoys some kind of admiration by British public.
Yet it seems like another example of emotion taking over sensible analysis. Should we actually scrutinise what Mr. Sarkozy has done in France over the last year and what he offers to his partners both here and in the US, we would be surprised. Because for all his talk during the election season about new France and the greatest reforms in our generation, he abstained from realisation of his programme. Having encountered the powerful resistance of France's almighty unions, he clearly prefers not to make any decisive moves. His dithering though has had a negative impact on his poll ratings because now he is criticised from both sides of political spectrum. For left wing he is dangerous liberal reformist and for right wing he is ditherer not fulfilling his promises.
As for his talk about bigger NATO involvement of France it is noteworthy that he wants it on French conditions. As it was noted by American experts Sarkozy wants France to have voice in NATO decision process. This may lead to possible rifts and arguments within NATO when France would act versus plans of Britain and the US. Also France wants by its involvement in NATO to be the main pillar of European defence forces and to influence European defence policy. And here we come to another important point. Mr. Sarkozy is very fond of European Union and he wants to further the integration during his spell as President of the EU Council. He denied his own voters a vote on the Lisbon treaty and it seems he will do his utmost to write his name in history of the EU. He has some Napoleonic ambitions and his policies may lead to conflict with other EU members. Angela Merkel was already angered by Sarkozy's proposal of "Mediterranean Union" and this might be just the first sign of Paris falling out with major European powers.
While Carla wooed British public, her husband tried to woo his Anglo-Saxon partners. But we should understand the true reasons of his policy and to follow his actual deeds. For it seems there were many right words but no right deeds. With his promises not fulfilled, his slumping ratings and looming financial crisis, his private life being opened to public doesn't add much gravitas to his person. Yet people were more interested here in wardrobe of Sarkozy's wife than in his policies just as people across the pond are more inclined to hear lofty rhetoric than analyse sensible reform proposals. As for me, I prefer Obama's speeches to glamour of Carla Bruni. At least, they have some political meaning.
In this time of emotions and mood running the world we should use our brains to make our future. We should be cautious and consider all options. Therefore we shouldn't' be deceived by Sarkozy's apparent addiction to Anglo-Saxons for he is trying to push his own agenda - so we should guard our interests. As for Mr. Sarkozy, it would be better for him if he tried to refrain from posturing and restrain his ambitions and actually do the reforms he promised. For if even leaders don't keep their promises, how on earth can people trust politicians again?

Clinton comeback

So, yes, we are entitled to follow the Democratic race for another couple of months. After Hillary won popular vote both in Ohio and Texas, it seems that we will even be forced to wait till August and the Democratic convention to know who will secure the nomination.
John McCain won in all four states that voted yesterday and was endorsed today by President Bush. Now Mr. McCain can focus on uniting Republicans behind himself t get ready for the final showdown in November. The victory of Mrs. Clinton guaranteed that Democratic candidates will continue fighting each other and thus making life easier for John McCain.
Mr. Obama was heavily criticised by Mrs. Clinton in the past few days. He was pushed to the wall by questions over his dealings with Tony Rezko, a businessman and a donor to his campaign, who is currently under trial over fraud charges. Also a leaked memo on NAFTA spelt bad news for Obama. In this memo a senior Canadian official says that one of the Obama's economic advisers has said to him that Obama's criticism of NAFTA was "just politics". The issue of NAFTA is very important for such states as Ohio where the free-trade agreement is blamed for big job losses. Once more the question was raised about the Obama's campaign: there's real difference between speeches and deeds, isn't it?
So we return to the core issue of this election: can a messianic message and lofty rhetoric substitute experience and substance? Here in the UK people know, for certain, they can't. Inspiration is very important, indeed, I shall say that we really need it (especially, from Gordon Brown because he really likes to figure the details rather than grasp the spirit). But they should go together - inspiration and policy. This mixture - vision and substance, insight and seriousness, rhetoric and policy, words and deeds - is what we need from our politicians in the hectic life of modern world.

Russian presidential election – outside perspectives

Today is the big election day in Russia. Millions of Russians are going to polling booths to cast their vote. While there is almost no doubt that the chosen Putin’s successor Dmitry Medvedev will won the poll, this election still attracts a considerable interest.

The big question is whether Medvedev as President will overthrow his mentor, Putin, and use the constitutional power of presidency to run the country in his own way? By now there are no signs of him conceiving that. He has worked with Putin since the beginning of the 90s when they came across each other in St. Petersburg mayor headquarters. When Putin became Prime Minister of Russia in 1999 he took Mr. Medvedev with him in Moscow. President Putin continued care for Medvedev and made him the chief man behind social reforms in last years, the so-called ‘national projects’ that were met with enthusiasm by Russian society shattered by social anarchy of Yeltsin years. For several years Medvedev along with Sergei Ivanov, Russian former defence minister, was considered as one of possible successors to Putin. A few months ago, the decision was taken and Medvedev was publicly endorsed by Putin to run for President. The ensuing presidential campaign underscored the continuity of Putin’s policy that was shored up by victory of Putin’s United Russia in parliamentary elections in December. The campaign of United Russia was based on notorious ‘Plan of Putin’ that was never seen by the majority of Russian voters but was nonetheless unequivocally supported in the poll. The magic word ‘Putin’ and the perception that he has some kind of plan for Russia’s future worked perfectly. They work today too. On the streets of Russian cities one can see various posters depicting Putin and Medvedev together and suggesting Medvedev’s role more as running mate to Putin than actual candidate for presidency.

Victory for Medvedev seems unquestionable. The opposition candidates are miserable figures comprising old Communist Zyuganov, ultra-nationalist Zhirinovsky and Bogdanov, previously unknown liberal politician who was, as many commentators suggest, covertly endorsed by Kremlin to discredit the liberal opposition. Medvedev refused to participate in debates with other candidates and has received more air time than other presidential hopefuls. By constant reporting of Medvedev’s speeches and meetings with voters by state-owned media it sometimes seems that nothing is going on in the country ‘except Medvedev’.

To make victory seem more ‘legitimate’ Kremlin will try to fix the poll stuffing ballot boxes with ballots filled in for Medvedev by personal of polling stations and ordering public-sector workers and dependents (doctors, teachers, students etc.) to vote for him. This will make Medvedev’s lead in final results more formidable and secure.

What should do the West in the aftermath of this sham election? Medvedev’s ties with Putin are very strong and although he made some liberal statements in the past, now he moves along the Putin’s lines. He supported the closure of British Council regional offices saying that these offices are rammed with spies. He was running the state corporation Gazprom and so he is responsible for using energy cut-offs as means of reaching political objectives.

Western politicians, and the Conservative party in particular, should not have false hopes about his liberal inclinations. British government should deal with him and Putin robustly and resolutely making the point of British national interests while understanding Russian interests.

Although Russia undergoes resurrection on the world stage, she still isn’t as strong as she tries to look like. Russian conscript army is inefficient, Russian economy is over-reliant on resources and though Putin has tightened his grip on the country, various social protest movements are emerging that are uneasy about high inflation, low pensions, corrupt bureaucracy and ineffective social policy. Russia depends on the West as much as the West depends on Russia and even more. Russian elite can not more imagine its life without London clubs, Paris shops or Milan fashion. Still this elite along with bureaucracy is the main pillar on which stands Putin’s popularity for these people amassed a huge wealth under Putin’s regime.

Russian rulers understand that Russia’s future lies with Europe – because of that they are still trying to represent Russia as a democracy and do not use the authoritarian Chinese model. It is often said that throughout history Russian leaders were much more pro-European than their own subjects. Putin postures against the UK and the US but this is the residue of the Cold War that is still being waged in minds of many Russians after humiliation of the Yeltsin era and this is the cause why Putin’s confrontational policy is popular. But Russians will understand that the greatest threat to the country will come not from old Europe or the faltering US but from resurgent power of China and anarchy of Muslim world. This means that the West may still forge an alliance with Russia while defending its own interests. Russia may be the British ally in fight with Islamic fundamentalism and may become a reliable source of various resources to diminish British dependency on Islamic world.

The common misconception is that you either love and yield to Russia or hate and wage war with her. But there is the third way – you can deal with Russia to the benefit of both sides. This is what the Conservative Party should do if they form a government after the next election.

US Election - race goes on

Now Hillary has everything at stake in Texas and Ohio on March 4. If she don't win there by huge margin, her hopes for presidency will be completely dashed. Yet it seems harder now taking into account Obama's 11 victories and his unstoppable momentum. Her lead in Texas has shrunk to several points, while in Ohio Obama narrows the gap too.
In order to maintain her positions Hillary has gone tough on Obama on recent rallies. She has once again praised her experience over Obama's inexperience, underlined her substance vs. Obama's abstract wording and even mocked Obama's prophetic style.

What will be the result of this bitter Democratic contest? While Democratic candidates scorn, sneer, and gibe at each other, Ralph Nader has entered the race. All this coupled can seriously undermine once well established lead of Democrats over Republicans (confirmed by the last Senate election results). In this fight it is the Republican candidate, John McCain, who can emerge as the winner. While excited by the Democratic contest, Obama's inspirational speeches and urgent demand of change, we should answer the following question: is McCain's possible win utterly undesirable for us who are not US citizens. Many people are exhausted by sometimes mad and stupid, sometimes arrogant and assertive Bush Administration but McCain is different. His stance over climate change has made him a considerable support even amongst liberals and also he criticised the Republican policy of tax cuts that was unquestionable since Reagan's era. But what seems his most important asset is his experience in foreign policy and national security. And these are the areas that should worry us as non-US citizens.
Here John McCain is on the right side of debate. He understands the current threat from Islamic extremism and he is in a good way stubborn and resolve to fight it and win. He understands an important role played by US allies and in the first row by the UK. For sure he will treat our special relationship as we deserve after our support in Afghanistan and, more importantly, Iraq. So then it will be up to our Lefties if they will put up with such a strong and confident Republican figure. I hope that his win might bolster our defence spending and army development while at the same time lead to the greater confidence of the West in the looming battle with extremism and fundamentalism of all kind that employs murdering of innocent civilians as means of reaching political objectives.
We shall see how this race will develop but whatever will be the result in November I hope that this display of democracy in action gives a good example to some countries in the world how modern people should govern themselves.

Conservative's self-destruction

Yesterday the Conservative party revealed a list of what it sees as 'gimmicks' made by Brown's government. The 4th number on the list pointed at government-backed school trips to Auschwitz. This list provoked an immediate outrage from wide range of commentators, including Ed Balls, Schools Secretary, and various Jewish organisations.
Cameron aides made a mistake. To describe the government plans to raise education level about Holocaust as a 'gimmick' is very damaging to the Conservatives' own agenda especially now while a lot of schoolchildren in this country seem to have not a clue about what happened in WW2. Proper teaching of history will eradicate this problem and I believe that conservatives should support any proposals dealing with this issue even if they stem from Labour think-tanks.
And this gaffe is another sign of shabby policy of opposition. The Conservative party languishes in constant bashing of Labour and criticises all their policy proposals while refraining of doing sensible policy statements of its own. Cameroons criticise Brown's dithering over number of issues (Northern Rock etc.) and it is quite appropriate. But when they pick a sensible government proposal and describe it as a 'gimmick' it makes no good them at all. When they are just sitting and watching Brown's obstacles while hoping that Brown will destroy himself they are not going to win people's support. Conservative party should stop this pernicious practice and make adequate policy proposals (on tax cuts, on renegotiating of the Lisbon treaty etc.) to win over swing voters. Only then they will become the Opposition we want them to be. Only then they will have all the chances to become the Government.

Rendition scandal

Today Foreign Secretary David Miliband told MPs that British territory was used by two CIA rendition flights. It came after confident denials by then Prime Minister Tony Blair and Jack Straw in the last year. Mr. Miliband actually was forced to apologise over misleading Parliament. He said that Her Majesty's Government hadn't had any information about it before yesterday due to some errors in American bureaucratic machine. As soon as these problems were tackled, US officials informed ministers on this issue.
What seems to me absolutely stunning in this story is that the UK Government doesn't know what is happening on its own territory. As far as I know, Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean where CIA planes landed for refueling , is still British Overseas Territory. Yet it seems that the US can do whatever they want on their base situated on the island while not notifying their British partners. Just imagine that they could use torture on British soil and the UK government wouldn't know anything about it. It is absolutely unacceptable that it takes an US official to notify ministers on what is going in their land.
The so-called 'special relationship' has to be reconstructed on fair basis, providing that Britain's voice will be heard in corridors of Washington and Britain won't be obliged to sign up to another military venture of the US. Having overstretched army right now fighting on ground in Iraq and Afghanistan we just can't afford to be embroiled in another 'quick and victorious ' war.