Don't strike, go to the polls! - 1

It is the first time that Labour has come so close to losing London. As you know, on May 1 Londoners are going to choose their new mayor. And it is possible that on the next day they will wake up with old Ken ousted by popular vote and other man seating in his chair. Who will be that man? Last poll, conducted on weekend, put Conservative Boris Johnson one per cent behind incumbent mayor and Labour candidate. It means that result is still unclear and depends on you coming out and going to booth to make your choice.
However merely the prospect of losing London spells for Labour a serious trouble. For many years the centre-left party had massive support of London liberal or left-leaning voters. New Labour efforts to curry favour with the City and businesspeople were successful: the party got support and donations from super-rich people and transformed London into the global hub of financial world.
But something happened. Brown's government is faltering. Wealthy businesspeople got cross with tax system and are moving out. Brown himself is very unpopular. Actually his rating is now on a par with that of Neville Chamberlain in 1940 just after the beginning of WW2. Over the last few days the PM was facing a fierce critique of his policy and several senior figures associated with Labour party question his judgement.
Taking into account recent developments losing London will just underscore an already shaped tendency in Labour's fortunes. These fortunes are going down. And it will be emphasised by the fact that the other candidate, Boris Johnson, does not seem very strong politician. For too long he was trying to be funny that many people do not view him as serious politician. He remains untested because he has not had senior posts. Much is known about his personality but very little about his administrative qualities. nobody can say whether he has enough experience to run such city as London that is more similar to small European country (both in terms of population and economic output).
On the other side, Ken Livingstone do not fare better either. He did not deliver on issues of crime, transport, public services. He is associated with troubled Labour party. Many Londoners are just tired of him.
What we have now is unpredictable result. But we will know the answer in few days. This election will show how deep Labour has fallen already and how much energy Tories have got from this fall so far.

Returning to work

Since I haven't been posting here for a while, tonight I'm going to return back. This is a hot period in UK politics. Time has come to state your opinion and go to the polling stations on May 1. We should make our voices be heard in corridors of Whitehall.
In run-up to May 1 I want to present a new series of political articles under common title "Don't strike, go to the polls!". It will comprise four articles starting from today till the election day. You can read them above this post.

Russian presidential election – outside perspectives

Today is the big election day in Russia. Millions of Russians are going to polling booths to cast their vote. While there is almost no doubt that the chosen Putin’s successor Dmitry Medvedev will won the poll, this election still attracts a considerable interest.

The big question is whether Medvedev as President will overthrow his mentor, Putin, and use the constitutional power of presidency to run the country in his own way? By now there are no signs of him conceiving that. He has worked with Putin since the beginning of the 90s when they came across each other in St. Petersburg mayor headquarters. When Putin became Prime Minister of Russia in 1999 he took Mr. Medvedev with him in Moscow. President Putin continued care for Medvedev and made him the chief man behind social reforms in last years, the so-called ‘national projects’ that were met with enthusiasm by Russian society shattered by social anarchy of Yeltsin years. For several years Medvedev along with Sergei Ivanov, Russian former defence minister, was considered as one of possible successors to Putin. A few months ago, the decision was taken and Medvedev was publicly endorsed by Putin to run for President. The ensuing presidential campaign underscored the continuity of Putin’s policy that was shored up by victory of Putin’s United Russia in parliamentary elections in December. The campaign of United Russia was based on notorious ‘Plan of Putin’ that was never seen by the majority of Russian voters but was nonetheless unequivocally supported in the poll. The magic word ‘Putin’ and the perception that he has some kind of plan for Russia’s future worked perfectly. They work today too. On the streets of Russian cities one can see various posters depicting Putin and Medvedev together and suggesting Medvedev’s role more as running mate to Putin than actual candidate for presidency.

Victory for Medvedev seems unquestionable. The opposition candidates are miserable figures comprising old Communist Zyuganov, ultra-nationalist Zhirinovsky and Bogdanov, previously unknown liberal politician who was, as many commentators suggest, covertly endorsed by Kremlin to discredit the liberal opposition. Medvedev refused to participate in debates with other candidates and has received more air time than other presidential hopefuls. By constant reporting of Medvedev’s speeches and meetings with voters by state-owned media it sometimes seems that nothing is going on in the country ‘except Medvedev’.

To make victory seem more ‘legitimate’ Kremlin will try to fix the poll stuffing ballot boxes with ballots filled in for Medvedev by personal of polling stations and ordering public-sector workers and dependents (doctors, teachers, students etc.) to vote for him. This will make Medvedev’s lead in final results more formidable and secure.

What should do the West in the aftermath of this sham election? Medvedev’s ties with Putin are very strong and although he made some liberal statements in the past, now he moves along the Putin’s lines. He supported the closure of British Council regional offices saying that these offices are rammed with spies. He was running the state corporation Gazprom and so he is responsible for using energy cut-offs as means of reaching political objectives.

Western politicians, and the Conservative party in particular, should not have false hopes about his liberal inclinations. British government should deal with him and Putin robustly and resolutely making the point of British national interests while understanding Russian interests.

Although Russia undergoes resurrection on the world stage, she still isn’t as strong as she tries to look like. Russian conscript army is inefficient, Russian economy is over-reliant on resources and though Putin has tightened his grip on the country, various social protest movements are emerging that are uneasy about high inflation, low pensions, corrupt bureaucracy and ineffective social policy. Russia depends on the West as much as the West depends on Russia and even more. Russian elite can not more imagine its life without London clubs, Paris shops or Milan fashion. Still this elite along with bureaucracy is the main pillar on which stands Putin’s popularity for these people amassed a huge wealth under Putin’s regime.

Russian rulers understand that Russia’s future lies with Europe – because of that they are still trying to represent Russia as a democracy and do not use the authoritarian Chinese model. It is often said that throughout history Russian leaders were much more pro-European than their own subjects. Putin postures against the UK and the US but this is the residue of the Cold War that is still being waged in minds of many Russians after humiliation of the Yeltsin era and this is the cause why Putin’s confrontational policy is popular. But Russians will understand that the greatest threat to the country will come not from old Europe or the faltering US but from resurgent power of China and anarchy of Muslim world. This means that the West may still forge an alliance with Russia while defending its own interests. Russia may be the British ally in fight with Islamic fundamentalism and may become a reliable source of various resources to diminish British dependency on Islamic world.

The common misconception is that you either love and yield to Russia or hate and wage war with her. But there is the third way – you can deal with Russia to the benefit of both sides. This is what the Conservative Party should do if they form a government after the next election.

Conservative's self-destruction

Yesterday the Conservative party revealed a list of what it sees as 'gimmicks' made by Brown's government. The 4th number on the list pointed at government-backed school trips to Auschwitz. This list provoked an immediate outrage from wide range of commentators, including Ed Balls, Schools Secretary, and various Jewish organisations.
Cameron aides made a mistake. To describe the government plans to raise education level about Holocaust as a 'gimmick' is very damaging to the Conservatives' own agenda especially now while a lot of schoolchildren in this country seem to have not a clue about what happened in WW2. Proper teaching of history will eradicate this problem and I believe that conservatives should support any proposals dealing with this issue even if they stem from Labour think-tanks.
And this gaffe is another sign of shabby policy of opposition. The Conservative party languishes in constant bashing of Labour and criticises all their policy proposals while refraining of doing sensible policy statements of its own. Cameroons criticise Brown's dithering over number of issues (Northern Rock etc.) and it is quite appropriate. But when they pick a sensible government proposal and describe it as a 'gimmick' it makes no good them at all. When they are just sitting and watching Brown's obstacles while hoping that Brown will destroy himself they are not going to win people's support. Conservative party should stop this pernicious practice and make adequate policy proposals (on tax cuts, on renegotiating of the Lisbon treaty etc.) to win over swing voters. Only then they will become the Opposition we want them to be. Only then they will have all the chances to become the Government.