Don't strike, go to the polls! - 1

It is the first time that Labour has come so close to losing London. As you know, on May 1 Londoners are going to choose their new mayor. And it is possible that on the next day they will wake up with old Ken ousted by popular vote and other man seating in his chair. Who will be that man? Last poll, conducted on weekend, put Conservative Boris Johnson one per cent behind incumbent mayor and Labour candidate. It means that result is still unclear and depends on you coming out and going to booth to make your choice.
However merely the prospect of losing London spells for Labour a serious trouble. For many years the centre-left party had massive support of London liberal or left-leaning voters. New Labour efforts to curry favour with the City and businesspeople were successful: the party got support and donations from super-rich people and transformed London into the global hub of financial world.
But something happened. Brown's government is faltering. Wealthy businesspeople got cross with tax system and are moving out. Brown himself is very unpopular. Actually his rating is now on a par with that of Neville Chamberlain in 1940 just after the beginning of WW2. Over the last few days the PM was facing a fierce critique of his policy and several senior figures associated with Labour party question his judgement.
Taking into account recent developments losing London will just underscore an already shaped tendency in Labour's fortunes. These fortunes are going down. And it will be emphasised by the fact that the other candidate, Boris Johnson, does not seem very strong politician. For too long he was trying to be funny that many people do not view him as serious politician. He remains untested because he has not had senior posts. Much is known about his personality but very little about his administrative qualities. nobody can say whether he has enough experience to run such city as London that is more similar to small European country (both in terms of population and economic output).
On the other side, Ken Livingstone do not fare better either. He did not deliver on issues of crime, transport, public services. He is associated with troubled Labour party. Many Londoners are just tired of him.
What we have now is unpredictable result. But we will know the answer in few days. This election will show how deep Labour has fallen already and how much energy Tories have got from this fall so far.

Glamour instead of policy

Last week was marked by the state visit of Nicholas Sarkozy and his wife to the UK. This visit was widely reported by national newspapers and sparked much buzz about a new era in Anglo-French relations.
Mr. Sarkozy delivered a speech about virtues of British people and referred to our Parliament as historical ancestor to other democratic institutes. He heaped praise on British resolve during WW2 and wanted to look like an Anglophile. In fact, he is one. Gordon Brown didn't lag behind and promised a new "Entente formidable" with French. Carla Bruni tried to look like First Lady should look like and to put her rather frivolous past behind. Many journalists and members of public were fascinated by her glamour and now she enjoys some kind of admiration by British public.
Yet it seems like another example of emotion taking over sensible analysis. Should we actually scrutinise what Mr. Sarkozy has done in France over the last year and what he offers to his partners both here and in the US, we would be surprised. Because for all his talk during the election season about new France and the greatest reforms in our generation, he abstained from realisation of his programme. Having encountered the powerful resistance of France's almighty unions, he clearly prefers not to make any decisive moves. His dithering though has had a negative impact on his poll ratings because now he is criticised from both sides of political spectrum. For left wing he is dangerous liberal reformist and for right wing he is ditherer not fulfilling his promises.
As for his talk about bigger NATO involvement of France it is noteworthy that he wants it on French conditions. As it was noted by American experts Sarkozy wants France to have voice in NATO decision process. This may lead to possible rifts and arguments within NATO when France would act versus plans of Britain and the US. Also France wants by its involvement in NATO to be the main pillar of European defence forces and to influence European defence policy. And here we come to another important point. Mr. Sarkozy is very fond of European Union and he wants to further the integration during his spell as President of the EU Council. He denied his own voters a vote on the Lisbon treaty and it seems he will do his utmost to write his name in history of the EU. He has some Napoleonic ambitions and his policies may lead to conflict with other EU members. Angela Merkel was already angered by Sarkozy's proposal of "Mediterranean Union" and this might be just the first sign of Paris falling out with major European powers.
While Carla wooed British public, her husband tried to woo his Anglo-Saxon partners. But we should understand the true reasons of his policy and to follow his actual deeds. For it seems there were many right words but no right deeds. With his promises not fulfilled, his slumping ratings and looming financial crisis, his private life being opened to public doesn't add much gravitas to his person. Yet people were more interested here in wardrobe of Sarkozy's wife than in his policies just as people across the pond are more inclined to hear lofty rhetoric than analyse sensible reform proposals. As for me, I prefer Obama's speeches to glamour of Carla Bruni. At least, they have some political meaning.
In this time of emotions and mood running the world we should use our brains to make our future. We should be cautious and consider all options. Therefore we shouldn't' be deceived by Sarkozy's apparent addiction to Anglo-Saxons for he is trying to push his own agenda - so we should guard our interests. As for Mr. Sarkozy, it would be better for him if he tried to refrain from posturing and restrain his ambitions and actually do the reforms he promised. For if even leaders don't keep their promises, how on earth can people trust politicians again?

Clinton comeback

So, yes, we are entitled to follow the Democratic race for another couple of months. After Hillary won popular vote both in Ohio and Texas, it seems that we will even be forced to wait till August and the Democratic convention to know who will secure the nomination.
John McCain won in all four states that voted yesterday and was endorsed today by President Bush. Now Mr. McCain can focus on uniting Republicans behind himself t get ready for the final showdown in November. The victory of Mrs. Clinton guaranteed that Democratic candidates will continue fighting each other and thus making life easier for John McCain.
Mr. Obama was heavily criticised by Mrs. Clinton in the past few days. He was pushed to the wall by questions over his dealings with Tony Rezko, a businessman and a donor to his campaign, who is currently under trial over fraud charges. Also a leaked memo on NAFTA spelt bad news for Obama. In this memo a senior Canadian official says that one of the Obama's economic advisers has said to him that Obama's criticism of NAFTA was "just politics". The issue of NAFTA is very important for such states as Ohio where the free-trade agreement is blamed for big job losses. Once more the question was raised about the Obama's campaign: there's real difference between speeches and deeds, isn't it?
So we return to the core issue of this election: can a messianic message and lofty rhetoric substitute experience and substance? Here in the UK people know, for certain, they can't. Inspiration is very important, indeed, I shall say that we really need it (especially, from Gordon Brown because he really likes to figure the details rather than grasp the spirit). But they should go together - inspiration and policy. This mixture - vision and substance, insight and seriousness, rhetoric and policy, words and deeds - is what we need from our politicians in the hectic life of modern world.